Report: Analysts estimate October sales will jump between 8-12 percent

Published by Mike on October 26, 2013

The 16-day government shutdown that dominated newscasts and headlines for the first half of October doesn’t look to have had a dramatic impact on monthly sales, according to separately filed reports by Kelley Blue Book and JD Power. The news is even more welcomed following September’s sales, which saw the first year-over-year decline in 27 months.

KBB is forecasting a double-digit jump of 12 percent in new-car sales, with 1.22 million units moved, including fleet sales. It’s also forecasting a significant, year-over-year jump in the seasonally adjusted annualized rate – a measure of sales that takes into account seasonal fluctuations – to 15.4 million for 2013, compared to 14.3 million during October 2012. The biggest earners are expected to be Toyota and Ford, although Chrysler, Honda and Nissan are also expected to make some big gains this month. “The government shutdown didn’t impact consumers’ growing appetite for buying new vehicles,” said KBB senior analyst Alec Gutierrez.

JD Power, meanwhile, is being a bit more conservative with its forecasting, claiming that October sales will hit 1.01 million, an eight-percent increase over the same period in 2012. It’s also estimating a hefty increase in the seasonally adjusted annualized rate, although the overall numbers are quite a bit lower than KBB’s estimates, with a year-over-year jump from 11.5 million to 12.8 million units. Going along with the less rosy report was this statement from JD Power’s senior vice president of global automotive practice, John Humphrey, who said, “Sales in the third week of the month strengthened relative to the first two weeks, which is evidence of vehicle buyers delaying their purchase until the shutdown was resolved.”

While it’s unclear just how right the two firms are, the fact that both are projecting significant gains, despite a government shutdown, are good for the industry. We’ll have a full report on October 2013 sales in one week, when numbers are officially published. Until then, scroll down for the press releases from KBB and JD Power.

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Analysts estimate October sales will jump between 8-12 percent originally appeared on Autoblog on Sat, 26 Oct 2013 13:58:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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